Silviu Cerna

Economist, Professor, Ph.D., the West University of Timișoara, expert in monetary policy and banking systems

The National Bank and Trust in the Leu

No. 60, Jul.-Aug. 2026 Although the statement may sound abstract, money is the foundation of modern economic systems and an essential element in the decisions made by consumers, firms, and financial intermediaries. It is the means through which households and businesses earn income, purchase goods and services, save, invest, pay social security contributions and property and personal insurance premiums, extend and receive credit, while financial markets allocate capital to finance economic activity. More

The False Promise of Romania’s “New” Economic Model

Silviu Cerna

No. 60, Jul.-Aug. 2026 To halt the recession, correct macroeconomic imbalances, and return the economy to a “normal” state, a number of Romanian analysts, economists, and politicians advocate replacing the current economic model – based largely on consumption, financed in part through public borrowing – with one centred on investment, reindustrialisation, advanced technologies, and wage growth aligned with productivity. More

Technocracy and the Economy

Silviu Cerna

No. 59, May-Jun. 2026 The words “technocrat” and “technocracy” have recently returned to public discourse in Romania. It appears that they were coined in 1919 by the American engineer W. H. Smith to designate a mode of economic organisation inspired by the rational principles of the natural sciences. The appeal of this current of thought was amplified by the disastrous effects of the Great Depression of the 1930s. Today, governments composed of technocrats are often regarded as viable solutions in times of crisis or when political leaders prove timid, indecisive, or discredited. More

Forecasts and Reality

Silviu Cerna

No. 58, Mar.-Apr. 2026 Economic forecasts rarely materialize exactly as expected, as economic reality is highly complex and full of surprises. Macroeconomic models used to produce forecasts are simplified representations of the economic system; the data they rely on are not always available in a timely manner, and economic developments are often affected by unforeseen shocks. More

The Economic Consequences of the War in the Middle East

Silviu Cerna

No. 58, Mar.-Apr. 2026 The war in the Middle East has already had a strong impact on energy prices, particularly those of oil and natural gas. It is therefore reasonable to expect that inflationary pressures will intensify in the period ahead. Beyond these inflationary effects, however, everything ultimately depends on how the conflict evolves – and on that point the greatest uncertainty prevails. More

Bulgaria Adopted the Euro, Romania Needs It Too

Silviu Cerna

No. 57, Jan.-Feb. 2026 Like other EU countries, Romania committed to adopting the single European currency. At the time of accession to the EU (2007), no precise date was set for this. In the years before and immediately following, however, there were projections and indicative deadlines circulated by the authorities. The initial deadline, presented as an unofficial objective, was the period 2012-2014. Subsequently, the authorities repeatedly postponed this deadline: 2015, 2019, 2024-2026, and now, it seems, sine die. This delay shows that the adoption of the euro was never taken seriously by the Romanian authorities. More

Bulgaria Adopted the Euro, Romania Needs It Too

Silviu Cerna

No. 57, Jan.-Feb. 2026 Bulgaria adopted the European currency on January 1, 2026. Although it took place overnight, this historic event is the culmination of a long process of assimilation of the elements of European civilization. In the monetary field, this process began back in 1881, when the Autonomous Principality of Bulgaria established the bimetallic monetary system (gold, silver), which existed at that time in the “Latin Monetary Union” (France, Belgium, Italy, Switzerland and Luxembourg). The national currency was called “leva”, which means “lion” in Bulgarian and comes, like the name of the Romanian currency – “leu” –, from the Dutch thalers (leeuwendaalder), which circulated in Eastern Europe in the 17th–18th centuries. The first Bulgarian national currency had a nominal value equal to that of the French franc, like the currencies of all other countries that adopted the Latin monetary system. More

The Evolution of Money and Payment Systems

Silviu Cerna

No. 56, Nov.-Dec. 2025 In the modern era, money and payment systems have been characterized by the use of official currency (banknotes and coins, cash), issued by the central bank, as well as private currency (scriptures, account money), created by commercial banks by establishing demand deposits and issuing credit cards and other financial instruments. Payment systems that have emerged recently – such as, for example, Alipay, WeChat, Venmo or PayPal – are based on a new financial technology (fintech), but are still linked to bank deposits and credit cards. As a result, these new systems constitute an evolution, not a revolution, as bitcoin supporters claim. More

The Cost of Corruption

Silviu Cerna

No. 56, Nov.-Dec. 2025 The “National Defence Strategy for the Country for the Period 2025-2030”, recently adopted by Parliament, considers that a major vulnerability for Romania’s national security is corruption. It constitutes a serious risk for national security, as it weakens state institutions, affects the economy and erodes citizens’ trust in each other and in the democratic political system. More

“Innovation” and “Economic Growth” – “Winners” of the Nobel Prize in Economics 2025

Silviu Cerna

No. 56, Nov.-Dec. 2025 The 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics celebrates the fruitful dialogue between the history of economic ideas and the modern theory of sustainable growth. The Nobel Committee awarded half of the prize (11 million Swedish kronor, approximately 1.2 million US dollars) to Joel Mokyr, and the other half to Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, in equal shares. More

Paso Doble: Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

Silviu Cerna

No. 56, Nov.-Dec. 2025 Fiscal (budgetary) policies and monetary policies are macroeconomic and conjunctural in nature. They are developed and applied by different authorities, independent of each other, namely the government and the central bank. This does not mean that the two types of economic policies are not interdependent. Both act on the economy and influence its overall performance, and the interdependence between them is manifested by the reciprocal effects and constraints that they impose on each other. As a result, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is necessary for the stability of the economy, the promotion of sustainable economic growth and the efficient approach to various challenges. More

Price Increases and Their Economic Consequences

Silviu Cerna

No. 55, Sep.-Oct. 2025 In many countries, including Romania, the prices of goods and services tend to rise. This process is called inflation. Prices are determined by many factors: supply and demand, the cost of labour and raw materials, competition among sellers, and so on. But, in essence, inflation is related to supply and demand: if the demand for goods and services increases faster than the supply, prices tend to rise. More