Since its declaration of independence in 1991, Kiev has identified the situation in Crimea as a national security vulnerability in the wake of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s presence in Sevastopol.Negotiations with Moscow, completed in 1997, laid the groundwork for a treaty that would resolve the Soviet legacy, with Russia receiving 81.7% of the fleet while Ukraine only 18.3%, or 87 vessels and one submarine. More
The self-proclaimed Islamic State, known to the international press under the ISIS moniker, became a true center of power in the Middle East in the period 2014-2017. Its success came with a background of instability generated by the Arab Spring, but is also due to the support from actors such as Turkey or a part of the Gulf states, as well as an unnatural alliance between Sunni jihadists in Iraq and the secular army of the Baath regime, marginalized after the downfall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. More
The 2020 peace agreement in Nagorno Karabakh is not just redrawing the security relationship between Yerevan and Baku, but, at the same time, it reshapes the regional geopolitics.First of all, the OSCE Minsk Group played an insignificant role in these negotiations. It is true that the support of the West for Armenia is much lower when compared to Azerbaijan. This is because of the chosen foreign policy of either state, Armenia opting to prioritize its relationship with the Russian Federation, including by withdrawing from the Eastern Partnership in 2013. By contrast, Azerbaijan is, along with Georgia, a key NATO partner in the region. At the same time, its energy reserves make Azerbaijan a strategic partner for the EU in its pursuit of energy security. More
The American President, Donald Trump, recently announced his intentions to negotiate with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar to rethink their stated intentions of purchasing military equipment from the Russian Federation.David Schenker, a candidate for Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, was quoted by Reuters that he “would work with our allies to dissuade them, or encourage them, to avoid military purchases that would be potentially sanctionable”. More
The Arab Spring, also known as the Jasmine Revolution, represents a series of protests that embraced the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), since the end of 2010, resulting in the collapse of certain authoritarian regimes in the region. In practice, the Arab Spring was externally regarded by Riyadh as a threat to its strategic security, potentially undermining its regional influence, as well as the Saudi alliances More
2016 proved to be a critical year for the Turkish economy, witnessing enhanced risks of falling into a recession.The situation has been marked by three important events that took place both internally and externally. First of all, last summer’s failed coup d’état and the subsequent repressive measures undertaken by the regime (with more than 50,000 people detained and other 100,000 sacked) outlined the instability of Turkey’s internal politics. Within this context, the European Union bestowed heavy criticism upon the Turkish authorities, and the European Parliament consequently decided on November 24th, 2016 to freeze the accession negotiations, on the basis of severe violations of human rights. More
With a population of roughly 1.4 million, Bahrain represents the smallest state of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), but it is also, at the same time, the most important geopolitical pivot regarding the regional balance of power between Saudi Arabia and Iran. More
A terrorist attack at the airport, a failed coup, the assassination of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara or the New Year’s Eve massacre, are just some of the events that marked a bloody 2016 for Turkey. At the same time, excluding Syria, Turkey is the state that has witnessed the most terrorist attacks coming from Daesh in the previous year. Moreover, due to the dynamics of regional geopolitical, tensions between Ankara and Washington are growing, the Turks being dissatisfied with the support of the USA for the Kurds in Syria, which has made Fikri Ișık, the defense minister in Ankara, to announce that his country could close the Incirlik Air Base. Obviously, these escalating tensions raise questions about Turkey's future relationship with the West. But beyond foreign policy, Turkey risks sinking internally into a socio-political crisis, coordinated with a possible recession and a possible retry for the army to orchestrate a coup whose effects would throw the country in total chaos. More
Trump’s electoral victory was viewed with cautious enthusiasm in Ankara, which looks forward to a reset of the United States – Tukey axis, after the policies of the previous Obama Administration contradicted several of the interests of the current Turkish political leadership.Even now, with the entire roster of Donald Trump’s cabinet known, the particulars of his foreign policy remain unpredictable, especially with regards to a region he is likely unfamiliar with and whose specificities he is likely to misunderstand. Many of Trump’s speeches on the campaign trail have been self-contradictory with regards to the region. For instance, he supported working with Iran to address the Daesh menace and then followed up on this with hints that he wished to renegotiate or even suspend the nuclear deal. More
Formerly strategic partners, Saudi Arabia and Iran have transformed the entire Middle East in a geopolitical chessboard. The breach occurred in 1979 when, in the aftermath of large protests, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was forced to abandon Iran, allowing the regime led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to seize power in Tehran. More
The severing of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, at the beginning of this year, has not come as much of a surprise. The two states have plunged into a cold war after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, with the competition between the two transforming the entire Middle East into a chessboard for geopolitical struggles. More
The tragic event in Ankara, in which the Russian Federation’s Ambassador to Turkey, 62 year old Andrey Karlov, was assassinated by a lone gunman during an art exhibit, has raised numerous suspicions, some of which have been aired on the global media stage. Ambassador Karlov was shot on November 19, just one day before the meeting of the Iran-Russia-Turkey trilateral discussion group, whose stated goal is a workable Syrian peace plan. The event has been delayed indefinitely, which has raised suspicions regarding the context of the assassination. More
